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Approval of planned online casino regulation could see market grow to 3.3 Bn Euros by 2024

More and more gambling is taking place online. The closure of land-based gambling businesses due to coronavirus is just one of many growth factors. The trend towards online gambling will be stimulated further by the licensing of casino sites in Germany. According to a recent study, 62% of German online gamblers are willing to use the websites of operators licensed in Germany. The German online casino market forecast made by Goldmedia therefore predicts an increase in gross gambling yields from 2.2 Bn Euros (2019) to 3.3 Bn Euros in 2024.

These are the results of the study ‘Gambling Market in Germany 2020’, conducted by the advisory and research group Goldmedia (www.goldmedia.com) and published with the support from industry platform CasinoOnline.de (www.casinoonline.de). The report presents the recent market developments of the lottery, betting, casino and slot machine sectors up to the year 2019, as well as a market forecast until 2024. The main emphasis within the study is put on online casinos.

New ‘Interstate Treaty on Gambling’ takes online casinos out of the grey area

Online casino operators in Germany who are licensed in another EU country are currently stuck in a legal grey area. As a consequence, player protection can’t always be guaranteed, and the country is losing out on considerable amounts of potential taxes. In March 2020, the German states have therefore agreed to open the market under strict rules for player protection. At the basis of this lies the new Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüNeuRegStV), that is currently authorised by the European Commission.

Player protection measures approved by users

Even though the New Interstate Treaty on Gambling envisages stricter player protection measures, than currently are legally requested for online casinos already on the market, the majority of online casino users are happy to embrace further player protection measures: An empiric study of around 400 online casino players has shown that between 56% and 81% approve of the envisaged player protection measures, which include a monthly deposit limit, a fixed maximum stake and technology for early detection of players at risk.

Players would prefer an online casino with a German licence

User surveys, as well as a market simulation, have shown the level of preference of operators licensed in Germany to German players. If given the choice, the vast majority of players (62%) would choose an operator licensed in Germany, despite the regulatory restrictions described in the Interstate Treaty on Gambling. More than a third (38%) would keep playing on websites of operators licensed in another EU country. The decisive factors for those players are, among others, that there are no deposit limits or maximum stakes per game.

Online casinos with a German licence will generate 1.9 Bn Euros by 2024

The prognosis about the liberalised market has been made based on expert assessments and on the preferences listed by players. If the new Interstate Treaty on Gambling comes into force as planned in 2021, the gross gambling yield from operators licensed in Germany could reach 1.9 Bn Euros. The gross gambling yields from operators licensed in an EU country would therefore be halved to 1.2 Bn Euros during the same time period.

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