JP Morgan Expects Macau’s September 2023 Revenue Decline Due to Natural Calamity

Based on the gross gaming revenue levels reached by Macau’s gambling industry in the first ten days of this month and the heavy weather conditions featuring the same period, financial agency JP Morgan reportedly anticipates that September 2023 will represent a ‘’month to forget’’ as far as any market accomplishments are concerned.

Lower Daily Revenues:

Asian Gaming Brief(AGB) refers to the JP Morgan’s recent data to report that the gross gaming revenues (GGR) generated by the Macau casino industry over the first 10 days of September are believed to have reached the MOP4.3 billion ($533.1 million) level, which stands for the daily market revenue figure of MOP430 million ($53.3 million) which is rather low in comparison to the MOP555 million ($68.7 million) daily figure seen in the same period in August 2023.

However, the market slowed down at the beginning of September due to the extreme weather conditions that made the Macau authorities order a nine-hour shutdown of all casino facilities, according to AGB, in the night between September 1 and 2. The city officials reportedly pronounced the highest level of emergency in the city (or so called No. 10 storm signal) due to the occurrence of the Typhoon Saola. As reported, the measure also included closures and suspensions of city borders and external transportation routes.

Continued Decline Expected:

According to the source, JP Morgan analysts expect that Macau’s GGR will continue to decline until the end of the month at a daily rate of around 15-20 percent in comparison to the preceding month. In figures, the brokerage reportedly anticipates that the industry will end the month with around $1.7 billion in gross gaming revenues against their $1.9 billion forecast predicting as minor decline as 6% at the beginning of the month.

Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li reportedly stated: ‘‘But again, the market will likely look through this print (which was dragged by extreme weather), while all eyes will be on Golden Week anyway by the time the September GGR is out.’’

High August Figures:

September figures seem additionally dragged down by the comparisons with those from August having generated $2.1 billion to represent the highest Macau’s monthly gross gaming revenue in 2023, according to the source. As reported, Macau’s casino industry recorded in August a daily average of $68.7 million in gross gaming revenues or around 5% more than the daily averages of the second quarter of 2023 and more than $2 million above the $66.5 million July average.

AGB reports that Macau’s casino industry generated a total of MOP114 billion ($14.1 billion) in the period from January-August 2023, which represents a 295 percent increase over the same period of 2022. Still, the source continues that the 2023 figure stands for only 39 percent of the 2019 level when the industry generated MOP292.4 billion ($36.1 billion) in GGR. However, Macau authorities reportedly expect that the region’s gaming industry can reach the annual figure of MOP180 billion ($22.3 billion) by the end of 2023.